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Visiting Fellows
MALCOLM MACKERRAS AO
Visiting Fellow
Mr Mackerras was born in Sydney in August 1939, completing a BEc at the University of Sydney in 1962. He was a political staffer from 1959 to 1967 and has been a political science academic since 1968. He joined the Department of Government at RMC Duntroon in February 1974 and, until his retirement in February 2004, he taught both Australian and US politics at Duntroon and later at the Australian Defence Force Academy. He retired as an Associate Professor. His service as an academic employed by the University of New South Wales spanned thirty years, from February 1974 to February 2004. From February 2004 to November 2011 he was a Visiting Fellow in Political Science at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of New South Wales, at the Australian Defence Force Academy. From December 2011 he has been Visiting Fellow in the Public Policy Institute, Australian Catholic University, Canberra Campus.
He is well-known for his interest in elections and has written and contributed extensively to various media, especially in Australia. He lists his research interests as American, Australian, British, German, Irish and New Zealand elections.
On Australia Day in January 2006 Mackerras was a recipient of Australia’s second-highest honour when he was appointed an Officer in the General Division of the Order of Australia (AO). The citation for the honour reads: “For service to the community by raising public awareness of and encouraging debate about the political process in Australia and other western democracies, and through commitment to reform and improvement of the electoral system, and to education”.
The Mackerras Pendulum
Malcolm Mackerras is well known for “The Mackerras Pendulum” which applies to all Australian lower houses with single-member electorates. These pendulums are usually published again in The Australian newspaper shortly before polling day. If you write to Mr Mackerras (as many people have done) he can send you (by “snail mail”) his newest pendulums for the Commonwealth, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. These pendulums are typically the result of the most recent general election, reduced to a single diagram. In some cases, however, they are the result of the most recent general election adjusted for any redistribution of electoral boundaries which may have occurred subsequently. The Mackerras Pendulum applicable to the general election in New South Wales fixed for 26 March 2011 was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 6) under the heading “Liberals set to win majority in their own right”, 29-30 January 2011. The equivalent for Victoria (for the election fixed for 27 November 2010) was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 8) under the heading “Five seats hold the key to state election result”, 6-7 November 2010. The post-election New South Wales and Victorian pendulums are available from him by “snail mail”.
The Mackerras Pendulum for each of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory in each case is simply a statement of the most recent general election result. In the case of Queensland it was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 6) under the heading “On past performance, the only way is out”, 9-10 January 2010. In the case of Western Australia it was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 6) under the heading “Loss to Greens caps off Labor’s bad year”, 16-17 January 2010. In the case of South Australia it was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 6) under the heading “Swing skewed by personal votes”, 10-11 July 2010. In the case of the Northern Territory it was published in The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section (page 29) under the heading “Territory’s pendulous swing away from the ALP”, 23-24 August 2008. Post-redistribution pendulums for Western Australia and the Northern Territory are available from him by “snail mail”.
Pendulum for the 2013 Federal General Election for the House of Representatives
Very soon after the August 2010 federal election was finalised Mr Mackerras published (in The Australian newspaper) his initial pendulum for the 2013 federal election for the House of Representatives. The exact reference is page 6 of The Weekend Australian in the “Inquirer” section under the heading “Governed by a bare margin for error”, 16-17 October 2010. If you write to Mr Mackerras he can send you (by “snail mail”) a photocopy of the way it was set out in the paper. However, for the purpose of this website he is not using the artwork which can be seen only in The Australian. The reason is that a redistribution of electoral boundaries has occurred in Victoria and it was implemented in December 2010. Then there was a redistribution of South Australian boundaries and it was implemented in October 2011.
Table 2 shows the distribution of seats as determined by the August 2010 election. It chances that the Victorian and South Australian redistributions did not alter any seat notionally. Consequently Table 2 still applies, notwithstanding that the pendulum uses new boundary figures for Victoria and South Australia. In those redistributions the seat most altered was McEwen in Victoria. With a pre-redistribution enrolment of 110,741 electors it saw only 56,619 retained in the new McEwen. The other 54,122 electors were removed to Casey, Scullin, Indi, Bendigo and Jagajaga. The addition of 33,384 electors from Calwell brings the new McEwen up to 90,003. As can be seen from Table 3 the new McEwen (highly marginal for the Liberal Party’s Fran Bailey on 2007 figures) is now fairly safe for Labor. It needs a swing of 9.3 per cent for the Liberals to re-gain McEwen.
In South Australia the seat most affected is Wakefield which becomes slightly more rural by now including part of the Barossa. Wakefield gains 2,396 electors from Barker and 1,878 from Mayo but loses a net 6,466 electors to Port Adelaide, giving Wakefield 98,555 electors. The Liberal Party now needs a swing of 10.3 per cent to take Wakefield from Labor compared with an even 12 per cent on the boundaries which applied at the 2010 general election.
On 30 September 2011 the Electoral Commissioner, Ed Killesteyn, determined that the number of members for each jurisdiction would be the same at the next election (whether held in 2012 or 2013) as it was in 2010. Consequently there will be no boundary changes in the states of New South Wales (48 seats), Queensland (30 seats), Western Australia (15 seats) or Tasmania (five seats). Likewise each territory retains its two seats unchanged.
It should be mentioned that the Mackerras Pendulum is done on a Labor/Coalition scale. In the case of New England the swing figure shown is that needed by The Nationals to take the seat from Tony Windsor. In Lyne the swing figure is that needed by The Nationals to take the seat from Rob Oakeshott. In Denison Labor needs a swing of 1.2 per cent to take the seat from Andrew Wilkie. In Melbourne Labor needs a swing of 5.9 per cent to take the seat from Adam Bandt. In O’Connor the Liberal Party needs a swing of 3.6 per cent to take the seat from Tony Crook. In Kennedy the Liberal National Party needs a swing of 18.3 per cent to take the seat from Bob Katter.
Table 1: Aggregate Two-Party Preferred Percentages, 1949–2010
|
Election |
% Labor |
% Lib-CP-Nat |
% Swing |
|
1949 |
49.0 |
51.0 |
5.1 to Lib-CP |
|
1951 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
0.3 to Labor |
|
1954 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
1.4 to Labor |
|
1955 |
45.7 |
54.3 |
5.0 to Lib-CP |
|
1958 |
45.9 |
54.1 |
0.2 to Labor |
|
1961 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
4.6 to Labor |
|
1963 |
47.4 |
52.6 |
3.1 to Lib-CP |
|
1966 |
43.1 |
56.9 |
4.3 to Lib-CP |
|
1969 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
7.1 to Labor |
|
1972 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
2.5 to Labor |
|
1974 |
51.7 |
48.3 |
1.0 to Lib-CP |
|
1975 |
44.3 |
55.7 |
7.4 to Lib-CP |
|
1977 |
45.4 |
54.6 |
1.1 to Labor |
|
1980 |
49.6 |
50.4 |
4.2 to Labor |
|
1983 |
53.2 |
46.8 |
3.6 to Labor |
|
1984 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
1.4 to Lib-Nat |
|
1987 |
50.8 |
49.2 |
1.0 to Lib-Nat |
|
1990 |
49.9 |
50.1 |
0.9 to Lib-Nat |
|
1993 |
51.4 |
48.6 |
1.5 to Labor |
|
1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
5.0 to Lib-Nat |
|
1998 |
51.0 |
49.0 |
4.6 to Labor |
|
2001 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
1.9 to Lib-Nat |
|
2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
1.8 to Lib-Nat |
|
2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
5.4 to Labor |
|
2010 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
2.6 to Lib-Nat |
Table 2: House of Representatives: Seats won, 21 August 2010
General Election
|
|
Labor |
Liberal |
National |
Independent |
Greens |
Total |
|
New South Wales |
26 |
16 |
4 |
2 |
– |
48 |
|
Victoria |
22 |
12 |
2 |
– |
1 |
37 |
|
Queensland |
8 |
16 |
5 |
1 |
– |
30 |
|
Western Australia |
3 |
11 |
1 |
– |
– |
15 |
|
South Australia |
6 |
5 |
– |
– |
– |
11 |
|
Tasmania |
4 |
– |
– |
1 |
– |
5 |
|
Australian Capital Territory |
2 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
2 |
|
Northern Territory |
1 |
1 |
– |
– |
– |
2 |
|
Total |
72 |
61 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
150 |
Table 3 sets out the seats of Table 2 in the form of a pendulum table for the Labor side.
Table 3: The Up-to-date “Mackerras Pendulum” (Labor Side)
Labor Seats (Including Ind/Greens)
Labor 72
Independents 3
Greens 1
Total 76
Majority 2
|
Lib/Nat/Ind Majority |
150 148 146 144 142 140 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 |
Batman (Vic) Gellibrand (Vic) Melbourne (Greens, Vic) Wills (Vic) Gorton (Vic) Lalor (Vic) Port Adelaide (SA) New England (Ind, NSW) Grayndler (NSW) Scullin (Vic) Calwell (Vic) Maribyrnong (Vic) Sydney (NSW) Denison (Ind, Tas) Kingston (SA) Fraser (ACT) Hotham (Vic) Holt (Vic) Corio (Vic) Cunningham (NSW) Shortland (NSW) Lyne (Ind, NSW) Charlton (NSW) Newcastle (NSW) Hunter (NSW) Chifley (NSW) Lyons(Tas) Blaxland (NSW) Throsby (NSW) Makin (SA) Ballarat (Vic) Jagajaga (Vic) Franklin (Tas) Isaacs (Vic) Wakefield (SA) McEwen (Vic) Canberra (ACT) Watson (NSW) Bendigo (Vic) Fowler (NSW) Griffith (Qld) McMahon (NSW) Bruce (Vic) Melbourne Ports (Vic) Braddon (Tas) Adelaide (SA) |
24.8 24.1 23.4 23.3 23.2 22.2 21.7 21.6 20.7 20.6 19.8 17.5 17.1 15.9 14.8 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.6 10.9 10.4 10.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 |
|
Lib/Nat/Ind Majority |
58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 |
Richmond (NSW) Barton (NSW) Werriwa (NSW) Bass (Tas) Hindmarsh (SA) Perth (WA) Oxley (Qld) Fremantle (WA) Chisholm (Vic) Rankin (Qld) Kingsford Smith (NSW) Dobell (NSW) Parramatta (NSW) Blair (Qld) Eden-Monaro (NSW) Page (NSW) Lingiari (NT) Capricornia (Qld) Brand (WA) Lilley (Qld) Reid (NSW) Petrie (Qld) La Trobe (Vic) Banks (NSW) Moreton (Qld) Lindsay (NSW) Robertson (NSW) Greenway (NSW) Deakin (Vic) |
7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6
|
|
è Labor Majority |
0 2 |
Corangamite (Vic) |
0.3 |
Note that “Labor Majority” above is short for “Labor/Independent/Greens Majority”. Table 4 below sets out the seats of Table 2 in the form of a pendulum for the Coalition side. Note that the even-numbered markings on the left-hand side read as “Labor/Independent/Greens Majority”. Note also that in Kennedy the swing required is that needed by Labor to take the seat from the notional Liberal National Party member.
Table 4: The Up-to-date “Mackerras Pendulum” (Coalition Side)
Opposition Seats
Liberal 61
National 12
Independent 1
Total 74
Table 4
|
150 |
Mallee (Nat,Vic) |
23.3 |
|
148 |
O’Connor (Nat, WA) |
23.1 |
|
146 |
Maranoa (Nat, Qld) |
22.9 |
|
144 |
Murray (Lib, Vic) |
19.6 |
|
142 |
Parkes (Nat, NSW) |
18.9 |
|
140 |
Groom (Lib, Qld) |
18.6 |
|
138 |
Bradfield (Lib, NSW) |
18.2 |
|
136 |
Riverina (Nat, NSW) |
18.2 |
|
134 |
Moncrieff (Lib, Qld) |
17.5 |
|
132 |
Mitchell (Lib, NSW) |
17.2 |
|
130 |
Berowra (Lib, NSW) |
16.3 |
|
128 |
Curtin (Lib, WA) |
16.2 |
|
126 |
Mackellar (Lib, NSW) |
15.8 |
|
124 |
Wide Bay (Nat, Qld) |
15.7 |
|
122 |
Wentworth (Lib, NSW) |
14.9 |
|
120 |
Farrer (Lib, NSW) |
14.6 |
|
118 |
Fadden (Lib, Qld) |
14.2 |
|
116 |
North Sydney (Lib, NSW) |
14.1 |
|
114 |
Durack (Lib, WA) |
13.7 |
|
112 |
Warringah (Lib, NSW) |
13.1 |
|
110 |
Barker (Lib, SA) |
12.9 |
|
108 |
Cook (Lib, NSW) |
12.7 |
|
106 |
Tangney (Lib, WA) |
12.4 |
|
104 |
Kennedy (Ind, Qld) |
12.0 |
|
102 |
Gippsland (Nat, Vic) |
11.5 |
|
100 |
Moore (Lib, WA) |
11.2 |
|
98 |
Grey (Lib, SA) |
11.2 |
|
96 |
Calare (Nat, NSW) |
10.8 |
|
94 |
Hinkler (Nat, Qld) |
10.4 |
|
92 |
Bowman (Lib, Qld) |
10.4 |
|
90 |
McPherson (Lib, Qld) |
10.3 |
|
88 |
Wright (Lib, Qld) |
10.2 |
|
86 |
Indi (Lib, Vic) |
9.4 |
|
84 |
Cowper (Nat, NSW) |
9.3 |
|
82 |
Flinders (Lib, Vic) |
9.2 |
|
80 |
Pearce (Lib, WA) |
8.9 |
|
78 |
Forrest (Lib, WA) |
8.8 |
|
76 |
Hume (Lib, NSW) |
8.8 |
|
74 |
Menzies (Lib, Vic) |
8.7 |
|
72 |
Mayo (Lib, SA) |
7.7 |
|
70 |
Kooyong (Lib, Vic) |
7.6 |
|
68 |
Ryan (Lib, Qld) |
7.2 |
|
66 |
Fairfax (Lib, Qld) |
7.0 |
|
64 |
Cowan (Lib, WA) |
6.3 |
|
62 |
Goldstein (Lib, Vic) |
6.1 |
|
60 |
Wannon (Lib, Vic) |
5.7 |
|
58 |
Stirling (Lib, WA) |
5.6 |
|
56 |
Higgins (Lib, Vic) |
5.5 |
|
54 |
Paterson (Lib, NSW) |
5.4 |
|
52 |
Gilmore (Lib, NSW) |
5.4 |
|
50 |
Hughes (Lib, NSW) |
5.2 |
|
48 |
Dickson (Lib, Qld) |
5.1 |
|
46 |
Leichhardt (Lib, Qld) |
4.6 |
|
44 |
McMillan (Lib, Vic) |
4.3 |
|
42 |
Fisher (Lib, Qld) |
4.2 |
|
40 |
Sturt (Lib, SA) |
3.8 |
|
38 |
Flynn (Nat, Qld) |
3.6 |
|
36 |
Bennelong (Lib, NSW) |
3.2 |
|
34 |
Macarthur (Lib, NSW) |
3.1 |
|
32 |
Bonner (Lib, Qld) |
2.9 |
|
30 |
Swan (Lib, WA) |
2.6 |
|
28 |
Dawson (Nat, Qld) |
2.5 |
|
26 |
Canning (Lib, WA) |
2.2 |
|
24 |
Herbert (Lib, Qld) |
2.2 |
|
22 |
Longman (Lib, Qld) |
2.0 |
|
20 |
Casey (Lib, Vic) |
1.9 |
|
18 |
Solomon (Lib, NT) |
1.8 |
|
16 |
Forde (Lib, Qld) |
1.7 |
|
14 |
Macquarie (Lib, NSW) |
1.3 |
|
12 |
Brisbane (Lib, Qld) |
1.2 |
|
10 |
Dunkley (Lib, Vic) |
1.1 |
|
8 |
Aston (Lib, Vic) |
0.7 |
|
6 |
Hasluck (Lib, WA) |
0.6 |
|
4 |
Boothby (Lib, SA) |
0.3 |
Explanation for Tables 3, 4 and 5
The “Mackerras Pendulum” (and, therefore, Tables 3 and 4) is based on Table 5 which sets out the two-party preferred votes as recorded at the August 2010 general election. It will be noticed that the percentage statistics of Table 5 have been reduced to one decimal place. There is a simple explanation for this. Mackerras has been drawing up electoral statistics for fifty years and he has always reduced them to one decimal place. Should any reader want two decimal places he or she is advised to go to the website of the Australian Electoral Commission. The address of the AEC website is www.aec.gov.au.
Table 5: Two–Party Preferred Votes and Swings in each Division, 2010
|
Division |
Votes Preferring Labor |
Votes Preferring Lib–Nat |
% Swing to Lib–Nat |
||
|
Votes |
% |
Votes |
% |
||
|
New South Wales |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Banks |
43,150 |
51.4 |
40,719 |
48.6 |
8.9 |
|
Barton |
44,742 |
56.9 |
33,941 |
43.1 |
8.1 |
|
Bennelong |
40,166 |
46.9 |
45,518 |
53.1 |
4.5 |
|
Berowra |
28,972 |
33.8 |
56,752 |
66.2 |
6.2 |
|
Blaxland |
45,948 |
62.2 |
27,882 |
37.8 |
4.4 |
|
Bradfield |
27,719 |
31.8 |
59,397 |
68.2 |
4.3 |
|
Calare (n) |
35,033 |
39.3 |
54,209 |
60.7 |
7.3 |
|
Charlton |
52,064 |
62.7 |
31,016 |
37.3 |
0.2 |
|
Chifley |
50,103 |
62.3 |
30,268 |
37.7 |
7.3 |
|
Cook |
33,450 |
37.3 |
56,138 |
62.7 |
6.3 |
|
Cowper (n) |
34,691 |
40.7 |
50,477 |
59.3 |
8.0 |
|
Cunningham |
56,234 |
63.2 |
32,780 |
36.8 |
3.7 |
|
Dobell |
45,551 |
55.1 |
37,163 |
44.9 |
–1.1 |
|
Eden–Monaro |
46,300 |
54.2 |
39,063 |
45.8 |
–1.9 |
|
Farrer |
29,434 |
35.5 |
53,513 |
64.5 |
3.3 |
|
Fowler |
45,178 |
58.8 |
31,704 |
41.2 |
13.8 |
|
Gilmore |
38,649 |
44.7 |
47,850 |
55.3 |
5.7 |
|
Grayndler |
58,789 |
70.6 |
24,450 |
29.4 |
4.2 |
|
Greenway |
40,355 |
50.9 |
38,953 |
49.1 |
4.8 |
|
Hughes |
38,688 |
44.8 |
47,619 |
55.2 |
4.6 |
|
Hume |
36,337 |
41.3 |
51,679 |
58.7 |
3.4 |
|
Hunter (n) |
50,803 |
62.5 |
30,511 |
37.5 |
3.2 |
|
Kingsford Smith |
45,249 |
55.2 |
36,780 |
44.8 |
8.1 |
|
Lindsay |
42,546 |
51.1 |
40,681 |
48.9 |
5.2 |
|
Lyne (n) |
31,902 |
37.6 |
53,065 |
62.4 |
3.6 |
|
Macarthur |
36,741 |
47.0 |
41,462 |
53.0 |
3.5 |
|
Mackellar |
29,855 |
34.3 |
57,245 |
65.7 |
3.3 |
|
Macquarie |
42,604 |
48.7 |
44,801 |
51.3 |
1.5 |
|
McMahon |
46,170 |
57.8 |
33,690 |
42.2 |
6.0 |
|
Mitchell |
27,500 |
32.8 |
56,229 |
67.2 |
7.5 |
|
Newcastle |
51,220 |
62.5 |
30,744 |
37.5 |
3.4 |
|
New England (n) |
30,265 |
33.2 |
60,907 |
66.8 |
2.0 |
|
North Sydney |
30,808 |
35.9 |
54,901 |
64.1 |
8.5 |
|
Page (n) |
46,273 |
54.2 |
39,111 |
45.8 |
–1.8 |
|
Parkes (n) |
27,946 |
31.1 |
61,789 |
68.9 |
5.2 |
|
Parramatta |
42,583 |
54.4 |
35,734 |
45.6 |
5.5 |
|
Paterson |
36,804 |
44.7 |
45,582 |
55.3 |
4.7 |
|
Reid |
41,949 |
52.7 |
37,679 |
47.3 |
8.2 |
|
Richmond (n) |
46,071 |
57.0 |
34,764 |
43.0 |
1.9 |
|
Riverina (n) |
28,009 |
31.8 |
59,980 |
68.2 |
3.6 |
|
Robertson |
43,520 |
51.0 |
41,821 |
49.0 |
–0.9 |
|
Shortland |
52,612 |
62.8 |
31,101 |
37.2 |
1.9 |
|
Sydney |
53,235 |
67.1 |
26,142 |
32.9 |
2.3 |
|
Throsby |
51,909 |
62.1 |
31,662 |
37.9 |
4.7 |
|
Warringah |
31,360 |
36.9 |
53,612 |
63.1 |
4.3 |
|
Watson |
45,393 |
59.1 |
31,364 |
40.9 |
9.1 |
|
Wentworth |
30,457 |
35.1 |
56,219 |
64.9 |
11.0 |
|
Werriwa |
42,740 |
56.7 |
32,574 |
43.3 |
8.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total NSW |
1,958,077 |
48.8 |
2,051,241 |
51.2 |
4.8 |
Table 5: Two–Party Preferred Votes and Swings in each Division, 2010 (cont.)
|
Division |
Votes Preferring Labor |
Votes Preferring Lib–Nat |
% Swing to Lib–Nat |
||
|
Votes |
% |
Votes |
% |
||
|
Victoria |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aston |
40,916 |
48.2 |
43,901 |
51.8 |
–3.3 |
|
Ballarat |
55,188 |
61.7 |
34,251 |
38.3 |
–3.6 |
|
Batman |
58,028 |
74.9 |
19,435 |
25.1 |
1.0 |
|
Bendigo |
54,928 |
59.5 |
37,337 |
40.5 |
–3.4 |
|
Bruce |
44,603 |
58.1 |
32,144 |
41.9 |
0.2 |
|
Calwell |
61,045 |
69.7 |
26,509 |
30.3 |
–0.4 |
|
Casey |
38,439 |
45.8 |
45,458 |
54.2 |
–1.7 |
|
Chisholm |
43,459 |
56.1 |
33,991 |
43.9 |
1.3 |
|
Corangamite |
47,235 |
50.4 |
46,464 |
49.6 |
0.4 |
|
Corio |
53,083 |
64.2 |
29,578 |
35.8 |
–5.3 |
|
Deakin |
41,927 |
52.4 |
38,073 |
47.6 |
–1.0 |
|
Dunkley |
42,023 |
49.0 |
43,777 |
51.0 |
–3.0 |
|
Flinders |
37,002 |
40.9 |
53,499 |
59.1 |
0.9 |
|
Gellibrand |
61,531 |
73.9 |
21,732 |
26.1 |
–2.4 |
|
Gippsland (n) |
34,199 |
38.5 |
54,513 |
61.5 |
5.5 |
|
Goldstein |
36,811 |
43.5 |
47,747 |
56.5 |
0.4 |
|
Gorton |
70,705 |
72.2 |
27,280 |
27.8 |
–0.9 |
|
Higgins |
35,180 |
43.3 |
46,167 |
56.7 |
–0.3 |
|
Holt |
60,412 |
63.2 |
35,133 |
36.8 |
–1.6 |
|
Hotham |
50,394 |
63.5 |
28,966 |
36.5 |
–0.5 |
|
Indi |
33,916 |
40.1 |
50,755 |
59.9 |
0.7 |
|
Isaacs |
55,721 |
61.0 |
35,594 |
39.0 |
–3.3 |
|
Jagajaga |
52,868 |
61.5 |
33,075 |
38.5 |
–2.5 |
|
Kooyong |
34,508 |
42.5 |
46,779 |
57.5 |
–2.0 |
|
La Trobe |
45,308 |
50.9 |
43,689 |
49.1 |
–1.4 |
|
Lalor |
74,452 |
72.1 |
28,736 |
27.9 |
–6.6 |
|
Mallee (n) |
20,842 |
25.6 |
60,611 |
74.4 |
3.1 |
|
Maribyrnong |
51,193 |
66.9 |
25,379 |
33.1 |
–1.5 |
|
McEwen |
58,144 |
55.3 |
46,963 |
44.7 |
–5.3 |
|
McMillan |
38,731 |
45.6 |
46,229 |
54.4 |
–0.4 |
|
Melbourne |
65,473 |
73.3 |
23,854 |
26.7 |
–1.0 |
|
Melbourne Ports |
48,819 |
57.6 |
36,002 |
42.4 |
–0.4 |
|
Menzies |
33,811 |
41.3 |
48,102 |
58.7 |
2.7 |
|
Murray |
23,882 |
29.7 |
56,666 |
70.3 |
2.1 |
|
Scullin |
57,355 |
72.2 |
22,025 |
27.8 |
–1.4 |
|
Wannon |
35,554 |
42.7 |
47,697 |
57.3 |
–0.2 |
|
Wills |
61,297 |
72.6 |
23,091 |
27.4 |
–0.2 |
|
Total Victoria |
1,758,982 |
55.3 |
1,421,202 |
44.7 |
–1.0 |
|
Queensland |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blair |
39,814 |
54.2 |
33,595 |
45.8 |
2.7 |
|
Bonner |
38,765 |
47.2 |
43,400 |
52.8 |
7.4 |
|
Bowman |
32,455 |
39.6 |
49,490 |
60.4 |
10.4 |
|
Brisbane |
39,609 |
48.9 |
41,440 |
51.1 |
5.7 |
|
Capricornia (n) |
43,150 |
53.7 |
37,230 |
46.3 |
8.4 |
|
Dawson (n) |
39,455 |
47.6 |
43,494 |
52.4 |
5.0 |
|
Dickson |
36,549 |
44.9 |
44,902 |
55.1 |
5.9 |
|
Fadden |
26,356 |
35.8 |
47,236 |
64.2 |
3.8 |
|
Fairfax |
34,034 |
43.1 |
45,032 |
56.9 |
4.0 |
|
Fisher |
33,784 |
45.9 |
39,868 |
54.1 |
0.6 |
|
Flynn (n) |
37,086 |
46.4 |
42,806 |
53.6 |
5.8 |
|
Forde |
33,987 |
48.4 |
36,271 |
51.6 |
5.0 |
|
Griffith |
47,007 |
58.5 |
33,405 |
41.5 |
3.9 |
Table 5: Two–Party Preferred Votes and Swings in each Division, 2010 (cont.)
|
Division |
Votes Preferring Labor |
Votes Preferring Lib–Nat |
% Swing to Lib–Nat |
||
|
Votes |
% |
Votes |
% |
||
|
Queensland (cont.) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Groom |
26,589 |
31.5 |
57,912 |
68.5 |
10.3 |
|
Herbert |
37,797 |
47.8 |
41,221 |
52.2 |
2.2 |
|
Hinkler (n) |
31,993 |
39.6 |
48,770 |
60.4 |
8.9 |
|
Kennedy (n) |
31,106 |
38.1 |
50,616 |
61.9 |
4.7 |
|
Leichhardt |
36,273 |
45.5 |
43,539 |
54.5 |
8.6 |
|
Lilley |
46,234 |
53.2 |
40,711 |
46.8 |
4.8 |
|
Longman |
36,277 |
48.1 |
39,173 |
51.9 |
3.8 |
|
McPherson |
31,004 |
39.7 |
47,044 |
60.3 |
1.6 |
|
Maranoa (n) |
23,625 |
27.1 |
63,520 |
72.9 |
8.8 |
|
Moncrieff |
24,612 |
32.5 |
51,103 |
67.5 |
3.7 |
|
Moreton |
41,447 |
51.1 |
39,612 |
48.9 |
4.9 |
|
Oxley |
39,894 |
55.8 |
31,640 |
44.2 |
5.6 |
|
Petrie |
40,097 |
52.5 |
36,267 |
47.5 |
1.7 |
|
Rankin |
44,289 |
55.4 |
35,640 |
44.6 |
6.3 |
|
Ryan |
38,138 |
42.8 |
50,896 |
57.2 |
6.0 |
|
Wide Bay (n) |
28,029 |
34.4 |
53,484 |
65.6 |
7.2 |
|
Wright |
30,049 |
39.9 |
45,358 |
60.1 |
6.4 |
|
Total Queensland |
1,069,504 |
44.9 |
1,314,675 |
55.1 |
5.6 |
|
Western Australia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brand |
41,610 |
53.3 |
36,418 |
46.7 |
2.7 |
|
Canning |
38,303 |
47.8 |
41,818 |
52.2 |
–2.2 |
|
Cowan |
34,992 |
43.7 |
45,062 |
56.3 |
5.0 |
|
Curtin |
27,669 |
33.8 |
54,158 |
66.2 |
2.9 |
|
Durack |
26,155 |
36.3 |
45,843 |
63.7 |
6.0 |
|
Forrest |
33,257 |
41.3 |
47,343 |
58.7 |
3.3 |
|
Fremantle |
45,858 |
55.7 |
36,478 |
44.3 |
3.4 |
|
Hasluck |
40,774 |
49.4 |
41,722 |
50.6 |
1.4 |
|
Moore |
31,901 |
38.8 |
50,302 |
61.2 |
2.3 |
|
O'Connor |
22,029 |
27.0 |
59,555 |
73.0 |
10.2 |
|
Pearce |
32,349 |
41.1 |
46,292 |
58.9 |
1.2 |
|
Perth |
44,815 |
55.9 |
35,379 |
44.1 |
2.1 |
|
Stirling |
35,832 |
44.4 |
44,775 |
55.6 |
4.3 |
|
Swan |
37,710 |
47.5 |
41,729 |
52.5 |
2.8 |
|
Tangney |
31,607 |
37.7 |
52,266 |
62.3 |
2.5 |
|
Total WA |
524,861 |
43.6 |
679,140 |
56.4 |
3.1 |
|
South Australia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adelaide |
50,164 |
57.7 |
36,793 |
42.3 |
0.8 |
|
Barker |
34,992 |
37.1 |
59,278 |
62.9 |
3.4 |
|
Boothby |
42,042 |
49.3 |
43,317 |
50.7 |
–2.2 |
|
Grey |
34,373 |
38.8 |
54,119 |
61.2 |
6.7 |
|
Hindmarsh |
49,698 |
55.7 |
39,526 |
44.3 |
–0.7 |
|
Kingston |
58,695 |
63.9 |
33,139 |
36.1 |
–9.5 |
|
Makin |
53,014 |
62.2 |
32,219 |
37.8 |
–4.5 |
|
Mayo |
39,201 |
42.7 |
52,702 |
57.3 |
0.3 |
|
Port Adelaide |
63,295 |
70.0 |
27,084 |
30.0 |
–0.3 |
|
Sturt |
41,113 |
46.6 |
47,172 |
53.4 |
2.5 |
|
Wakefield |
54,528 |
61.9 |
33,485 |
38.1 |
–5.4 |
|
Total SA |
521,115 |
53.2 |
458,834 |
46.8 |
–0.8 |
Table 5: Two–Party Preferred Votes and Swings in each Division, 2010 (cont.)
|
Division |
Votes Preferring Labor |
Votes Preferring Lib–Nat |
% Swing to Lib–Nat |
||
|
Votes |
% |
Votes |
% |
||
|
Tasmania |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bass |
37,165 |
56.7 |
28,337 |
43.3 |
–5.7 |
|
Braddon |
37,650 |
57.5 |
27,855 |
42.5 |
–5.2 |
|
Denison |
42,692 |
65.8 |
22,167 |
34.2 |
–0.5 |
|
Franklin |
39,856 |
60.8 |
25,675 |
39.2 |
–6.8 |
|
Lyons |
40,959 |
62.3 |
24,796 |
37.7 |
–4.0 |
|
Total Tasmania |
198,322 |
60.6 |
128,830 |
39.4 |
–4.4 |
|
ACT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canberra |
66,335 |
59.1 |
45,821 |
40.9 |
2.7 |
|
Fraser |
71,613 |
64.2 |
39,928 |
35.8 |
0.9 |
|
Total ACT |
137,948 |
61.7 |
85,749 |
38.3 |
1.7 |
|
Northern Territory |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lingiari |
23,051 |
53.7 |
19,876 |
46.3 |
7.5 |
|
Solomon |
24,585 |
48.3 |
26,371 |
51.7 |
1.9 |
|
Total Northern Territory |
47,636 |
50.7 |
46,247 |
49.3 |
4.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Australia |
6,216,445 |
50.1 |
6,185,918 |
49.9 |
2.6 |
